PC Hardware

Several months back I was replying to a post on the Ubuntu Forums concerning an article title Five Tech Products that will be Dead in Five Years.  It is an interesting read overall but I found many of the points to be false.  Most notable the section about CD/DVD media

Computer DVD/CD-ROM

Why they’re going extinct: Ultra-fast broadband connections are becoming much more common in the home. According to Speedtest.net, average download speeds in the U.S. are now over 11Mpbs. That means most programs can be downloaded in a matter of minutes, or even seconds. So why would you want to pay the extra cost of having a DVD printed, boxed and shipped to your home? You wouldn’t. And in five years it won’t even be an option.

To that point I gave the following reply:

2 – Someday it is possible but not in the next 5 or 10 years. I still have clients using floppy disks on Windows 2000. Unless the turnover rate of hardware is increased (Microsoft would say it is 3-5 years, it is actually closer to 10) the legacy media will remain.

I mean really, who is going to give up CD/DVDs for a slow download?

Well….me for one.

A few months since I have spent some time thinking about that statement and my reply.  There is some accuracy in her statement that I missed during my first pass.

For example the last three games I purchased were downloaded.  Sure they were older games but many of the manufacturers are embracing digital download media.  Why not?  It is a cost savings to them overall.  You also see an increase in purchasing when the buyer does not have to leave their chair.

Let us also not forget the wonders of Cloud Computing that promise this very feature.  Media as a service delivered to you no matter where you are.  The removal of install media is at the very core of what the cloud is trying to be.

Is it too hard to imagine that we could see the end of CD/DVD installs in 5 years after looking at all the more recent changes?

Personally I think 5 years is a bit too fast.  Even with the ever increasing adaptation of newer operating systems in the client space we are still looking at a good 3-5 years before the majority of end-users are in a position to take full advantage of digital media delivery.  I think it will be another 2-3 years after that point before we see a decline, though I would product a very sharp decline at that point.